Clinton Opens 23-Point Lead Among Women, Gains With Democrats as Trump Struggles (POLL)
Hillary Clinton has advanced among women and consolidated support within her party since her nominating convention, while a difficult few weeks have left Donald Trump still struggling on basic ratings from his temperament to his qualifications for office. She leads him by 8 points in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Trump’s ratings in general haven’t worsened –- they just haven’t improved since he claimed the Republican nomination. And the trouble list is long: Seventy-nine percent of Americans say he doesn’t show enough respect for people he disagrees with, 70 percent express anxiety about a Trump presidency, 67 percent think he lacks the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively, 64 percent doubt his understanding of world affairs, 63 percent see him unfavorably overall, 62 percent say he’s not honest and trustworthy, 61 percent think he’s unqualified for office and 60 percent think he’s biased against women and minorities.
See PDF with full results here.
On his handling of his dispute with the Khans, parents of a fallen Muslim-American captain in the U.S. Army: Seventy-three percent disapprove, including 59 percent of Republicans.
Clinton has her own challenges in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates –- 66 percent say she’s too willing to bend the rules, though this has eased by 6 points from last month. She only runs evenly with Trump in trust to handle two key issues, the economy and terrorism. And she remains vastly unpopular in some groups, notably among white men who don’t have a college degree, an economically struggling group.
All told, Clinton leads Trump by 50-42 percent among registered voters, regaining a statistically significant lead after a closer 4-point race in mid-July. It’s quite similar among likely voters, 51-44 percent. It’s also similar in a four-way race including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein -– 45-37-8-4 percent among registered voters, still Clinton +8.
There have been ups and downs in the race to date –- ranging from +2 for Trump in May to +12 for Clinton in late June -– and more certainly are possible. That said, if 40 percent can be thought of as the base vote in either party, Clinton has been ahead more consistently than Trump. The race between them has averaged 48-43 percent in ABC/Post polls. She’s ranged from 44 to 51 percent support, while he’s seen 39 to 46 percent.
Clinton has improved notably since mid-July among college-educated white women, a critical group in this election; she now leads Trump by 19 points among them, 57-38 percent, after roughly an even split last month. Largely because of that shift, Clinton now holds a wide 58-35 percent lead among women overall (her highest support among women to date), while Trump is +10 among men. And, again given college-educated women, she leads Trump by 6 points among college-educated whites overall, a group Democrats never have won in exit polls dating to 1976.
Clinton has also advanced sharply among white Catholics, another potential swing voter group, and holds her customary huge lead among nonwhites.
Clinton is now supported by 86 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Bernie Sanders for the nomination. Trump has done less well in consolidating his base; he’s backed by 74 percent of leaned Republicans who favored someone else for their party’s nomination. Similarly, Clinton’s backed by 92 percent of mainline Democrats, while Trump does less well, 83 percent, among mainline Republicans.
Things could be worse for Trump, given his difficult post-convention days. He’s buttressed by factors including his big lead among non-college white men, 67-25 percent vs. Clinton, and the strong pull of ideology, with a 73-21 percent Trump lead among conservatives. He’s also up by a vast 76-18 percent among evangelical white Protestants, a core GOP group, and has improved from July among non-evangelical white Protestants, to 55-38 percent, Trump-Clinton.
One way to look at preferences is in profile: Fifty-six percent of Trump’s supporters are whites who don’t have a college degree, vs. just 26 percent of Clinton’s. Indeed 87 percent of Trump’s supporters are whites (regardless of education), vs. 56 percent of Clinton’s.
Clinton has gained 6 points in favorability from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll, from 42 to 48 percent, and her unfavorable rating has dropped from a high of 55 percent in June to 50 percent now. Her current 48-50 percent favorable-unfavorable score, while hardly great, is much better than Trump’s and her best since January.